Contact Information

Editor: srihani@globalcomplexity.org

[This website was launched on 24 June 2001. It has proved to be popular with those interested in the international political economy, development, and complexity. By end July 2009 the website had attracted about 358,140 visits from over 130,100 Internet addresses.]

Website's Aim

The website is dedicated to the dissemination of ideas that seek to promote a better understanding of the factors that shape social, political and economic events. Its mission is to accelerate the growing shift away from mechanistic perceptions in these fields to a viewpoint that recognises them as uncertain evolving outcomes arising from complex interactions between numerous actors. For technical information please see Complexity. 

Recent articles are available in General Articles, Iraq, and Palestine. Others are available in archives.

The following are only samples of articles published in the website:

Destruction of Iraq (August 2009)

Futile Promises (published July 2009)

West's Chronic Crisis (published March 2009)

Popes and Liberalism (published 29 December 2008)

Iraq: A Way Forward (published 21 July 2008)

Lessons from War (published 1 May 2007)

Iraq: Mission in Their Madness (published 12 February 2007)

Neoliberalism (published November 2006)

America's Suez (published November 2006)

Iraq: RIP (published August 2006)

Israel's worst enemy (published July 2006)

Plight of Iraqi Academics (published May 2006)

Time to Divorce God from Religion (published February 2006)

Cost versus value (published June 2005)

Arab Human Development Reports (published June 2005).

Iraq's Holocaust (published 30 August 2004).

America's Turbulent Decline (published April 2004).

2007/ 08: financial and economic turmoil

Commentators and politicians have been busy with the 'financial crisis' that they assure us appeared out of nowhere.  It would seem lessons are never learnt. Two features have not troubled them. Writing at Christmas time in December 2008 I thought it appropriate to outline what successive popes had said about economic liberalism (See Popes and Liberalism). The raging crisis made that topic an obvious choice.         

Update on Iraq's tragic circumstances

The invasion of Iraq in 2003 by the so-called coalition forces, and revelations about death, torture and humiliation of Iraqi prisoners and civilians, have done little to calm things in the Middle East. These events caused a great deal of harm to America's reputation and that of its close allies. The Iraqis have been relieved of Saddam Hussein and his cohorts. They discovered, however, a most unlikely truth: conditions could be even worse than what they endured before. 'Freedom and democracy' have never been so unattractive! Oil was undeniably a factor but events have shown that the USA did not succeed in that aim.

The eventual cost of the war is now put at between $1.2 and $3.0 trillion (yes trillion!). Iraq was of course not the recipient of this largess. Iraqi and American funds are being looted through corruption and mismanagement on a scale unseen before in Iraq or elsewhere. Numerous reports have been produced on the subject but the pillage goes on. Taxpayers on both sides of the conflict will pay a heavy price for many years to come. As usual in war, a number of individuals became seriously wealthy as a result of the war. By contrast, catastrophes continue to assail the vast majority of people in Iraq, both as groups and as individuals. Some 600,000 to one million civilians have lost their life since Spring 2003. Over two million Iraqis left their country. Ethnic and religious cleansing was and is clearly in evidence: many have suggested that this was actively encouraged by the occupying powers. The damage done by the war and occupation came after thirteen years of gruelling sanctions that turned out to be in effect just short of UN inflicted genocide. It is not easy for Iraq and its citizens to go back to anything resembling normality. And most important, Iraq will never go back to what it was in the past. A new, hopefully peaceful, reality will emerge but it is not possible to predict what that reality might turn out to be. Iraq is an adaptive complex system and that is how such systems evolve and move on. One thing is absolutely certain: whatever happens will not accord with US original intentions. Complexity's law of unexpected consequences rules supreme.

Ordinary people in the USA, and the UK, also paid a high price for the war and will continue to do so for decades. Ironically, more people from the USA were killed in the Iraq war than those who lost their lives in the atrocities of 9/11. Tens of thousands have been badly injured and the agony continues.

The major players, such as Bush and Blair, have departed the scene for good. However, they played an odd role while they were in power. They helped to underline the decline of the USA as a hegemonic power. Eden did the same in 1956 during the Suez war (see America's Suez, 2006). Amusingly, Bush's last visit to Iraq was marked by the now famous shoe throwing event which summed up the feelings of many people throughout the world.

Ultimately, the solution to Iraq's problems lies in the hand of Iraqis (see Iraq: A Way Forward ). However, the powers working against the country are formidable and totally without compunction (see for instance Plight of Iraqi Academics).

Oddly enough, the venture in Iraq turned round and bit the perpetrators. The political and economic crises that abounded in the summer and autumn of 2008 cannot all be attributed to what was done in Iraq but the costs of that war and lengthy occupation have had obvious negative impact on the economies of both the USA and the United Kingdom. On the political front and thanks to US foreign policies and actions, Iran has emerged as the main Islamic political power in the region.   

Update: the 'Middle East problem'

What is happening in Iraq could not be divorced from what is happening in the rest of the Middle East. 

Publication by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) of five excellent Arab Human Development Reports (the latest was launched in July 2009) was a significant event in many ways. See AHDRs which covers the first four reports. The latest report is equally depressing.

Muddling and meddling in Iraq increased instability in the Middle East, as seen in the Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. The awful loss of life caused by terrorist explosions in London in July 2005 simply brought home the message that aggressive foreign policies do not bring peace to either party. Again, the opposite is the more likely outcome. When will we learn?

Israel provides good examples. Its extremist governments continue to wage war on the Palestinians in the name of peace. The 'Israel Wall' is a rising monument to years of apartheid and ethnic cleansing. The situation was summed up well by the Palestinian thinker Hanan Ashrawi in a speech at the Hyatt Regency in Garden Grove on 23 August 2003:

"We are the only people on Earth asked to guarantee the security of our occupier ..while Israel is the only country that calls for defense from its victims .."

While on the subject of penetrating comments, I though the following quote from Haaretz concisely illustrated the twisted logic of Sharon's government when he was in power: 

"Following the liquidation of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin this week,... The defense minister explained that the "wave of hits" [by Israel] was intended to meet the "wave of escalation in terrorist attacks that will follow in its wake."

A political twist came in late January 2006 when Hamas candidates won the majority in elections in Palestine. Once again, freedom and democracy did not deliver a government acceptable to the 'world community'; with the USA and Israel in the lead. The situation deteriorated further since then. In the meantime, Israel is busy energetically making new enemies. Its involvement in Georgia in summer 2008 is one case in point. As usual, these ventures, actively encouraged by the USA, will lead nowhere. Meetings held in late-2007 to restart the so-called peace process led nowhere either. This fruitless process continued in 2008. As Obama moves into the White House, there is a promise of talks and as expected Israel began new aggressive operations in Gaza and new settlements in the occupied territories just in case. For a possible explanation please read Israel's worst enemy on this website. Following a long established tradition, when pressure is put on Israel to reach a settlement the political establishment engineer a power struggle that delays the evil day further. That happened once again in September 2008. Negotiations are suspended for the duration. And as per usual the Palestinians were attacked in a massive air strike in December 2008 in the lead up to the elections and the arrival of Obama at the White House. The predictability is breathtaking.

Speaking at Aljazeera TV station, the distinguished Arab political commentator Mohamed Heikal put the whole matter into a realistic perspective. He said the debate after Obama takes over will be between the 'Israel of the USA' and the 'Israel of the Middle East'. When these two factions, who do not necessarily view matters the same way, come to a conclusion which might take quite a long time a proposal will be put to the Palestinians which they will readily accept. In practice they have no bargaining chips apart from Hamas and more violence which could not produce a lasting solution. 

A new US president 

Following his arrival at the White House, president Obama created a wave of optimism. That was easy after Bush! After several months reality has kicked in. The US 'government' is more than just one person. It is the largest enterprise on earth, as one economist commented. Re-evaluation is already in train and hopes have been cut back accordingly (see for instance Waiting for the Obama we Elected by William R Polk in Informed Comment). The Palestinians agonies are not likely to be addressed and the world's media will continue to downplay the treatment they are receiving by Israel as well as by some Arab neighbours.