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(September 2002) My book on Complex Systems Theory and Development Practice: Understanding Non-linear Realities, was published in September 2002. The book is now available from bookstores, the publishers (Zed Books), and Amazon. The publishers can be contacted at:+44 (0)20 7837 4014 email: sales@zedbooks.demon.co.uk
The papers on development given in Rihani and rihani2 give an indication of the themes addressed in this book. Book's Subject MatterTwo Faces of a ParadoxDevelopment was given star billing during the second half of the twentieth century. Experts, led by equally dedicated politicians and administrators, unleashed a flood of reports on how to help so-called Third World countries to develop. Despite fifty years of intensive activity and costs amounting to billions of dollars, too many deprived regions have stubbornly failed to develop. That is an intriguing paradox. Millions continue to live in abject misery, racked by disease, hunger, and war. Too weak and illiterate to help themselves, they rely on advice and help from abroad. But the experts seem to be unwilling or unable to change course. Variations on the same failed prescriptions are repeatedly adopted in spite of their obvious inadequacy. That is the other side of the paradox. A Mistaken View of DevelopmentBased on the results of a five-year research project, the book argues that the scale and frequency of development failures, and the inability of the experts to change course, point to systemic problems associated with the framework within which development is conceived and pursued. The author's research extended deep into history and covered geographical locations and civilisations that went well beyond Europe and the USA. The author demonstrates that development has been treated mistakenly as a linear process that obeys deterministic laws of universal applicability. Development is assumed to have one escalator to success; economic development, and one ultimate destination; life as seen in Europe and the USA. Nations as Complex Adaptive SystemsThe author then advances convincing evidence to show that development in reality is an uncertain, lengthy, and open-ended evolutionary process that is driven by chance as much as by science; in essence a nonlinear, less predictable activity. As a result, he suggests that it would be more productive for nations to optimise their performance in their own different ways within prevailing circumstances without worrying unduly about where other nations are in the development league and how they got there. A Challenging ViewpointThe author emphasises that a change in viewpoint along the above lines would be more than a major departure from the norm. It would constitute a paradigm shift in the study and practice of development. That, he concludes, is the radical nature of change needed to achieve more consistent and sustainable results. As the author points out in the concluding chapter, the book has a tough but positive message: nations could make substantial progress by harnessing their local energies and resources, but national and international makers and shakers have to bite the bullet and accept that human development, as opposed to purely economic development, must come first and foremost. Equally challenging, the author describes the radical changes needed within the 'development industry' to make the paradigm shift meaningful and effective. He sounds a positive note by asserting that a paradigm shift is already on the way. Change, he warns, is unavoidable in any case: demonstrators that now greet all international gatherings are not all anarchists and trouble-makers. Most have a genuine message and a justifiable case. The world community, led by the USA and its international regimes and agencies, has only two options: to chart a new course the sensible way or the painful way. The author has no doubts as to which path he would recommend.
ContentsThe book, about 100,000 words in 270 pages, includes the following: Acknowledgements A Word of Explanation Chapter1: The Whole Case in a Nutshell
Chapter 2: A False Sense of Order
Chapter 3: Ancient Roots to Modern Ideologies
Chapter 4: Dawn of the Probabilistic Age
Chapter 5: Linear Recipes for a Complex World
Chapter 6: The Wealth and Poverty of Nations Human Poverty
Chapter 7: Freedom to Interact
Chapter 8: Capability to Interact
Chapter 9: Conflict and Incapability
Chapter 10: Agenda for a New Paradigm
Bibliography The Book's StructureThe book follows a natural structure that presents successive layers of evidence to support and elaborate the principal themes. Chapter 1 (The Whole Case in a Nutshell) gives an overview to integrate succeeding chapters into a rational framework. Ideologies and theories associated with the international political economy (IPE) are tackled first as they form, at least in part, the foundations for past and present policies and actions in development. The primary aim in Chapter 2 (A False Sense of Order) is to demonstrate that the main IPE schools of thoughts currently abide by an implicit linear paradigm. Their relevance as scientific models capable of yielding stable prescriptions of universal applicability is, therefore, analysed in some detail. For that purpose, emphasis is placed on the concurrent variety of interpretations within and clear overlaps amongst the leading ideologies. Attention is also drawn to the incessant process of revision that has affected IPE theories as their advocates sought in vain to model, in effect to predict or explain, the continual twists and turns of political economic events. Chapter 3 (Ancient Roots to Modern Ideologies) delves into the distant past to trace ancient origins to what are thought to be modern, and essentially Western, international political economic concepts. The object is to test the possibility that the key ideologies might be behavioural consequences of commonplace human interactions. Evidence in chapter 3, therefore, helps to pave the way for the introduction, in Chapter 4, of Complex systems as potentially useful tools in the study and practice of development. Chapter 4 (Dawn of the Probabilistic Age) describes nonlinearity and assesses its applicability to social, political and economic processes. Causes of unpredictability are outlined and evolutionary change; including fitness landscapes, gateway events, survival, adaptability and learning, is described to trace potential parallels with social, political and economic events. Game Theory is also discussed to explore cooperation and competition, and hierarchies and elites. The overall aim is to specify the feature that set Complex Adaptive Systems apart from linear systems. Chapter 5 (Linear Recipes for a Complex World) moves the discussion away from ideologies and theories and onto global and national institutions and activities. It continues the search for evidence of the telltale signs of linear thinking in present-day development efforts. Discussion focuses principally on the roles of the UN and the World Bank, and on the thorny topics of international debt, aid and trade. Chapter 6 (The Wealth and Poverty of Nations) underscores the huge, and growing, gap separating the few exceptionally wealthy nations from the rest. It identifies steady long-term evolution as a key feature of the path followed by the leading nations in their climb up the ladder of human development. The purpose is to show that developed countries adopted, albeit without prior design, integrative methods suited to nonlinear situations. They sought progress on a wide front that went beyond economic growth. In conclusion, the chapter argues that progress on basic social needs could be achieved in the absence of wealth. Poverty and human development are not mutually exclusive. The next three chapters explore the factors that help or hinder individuals' ability to interact in social, political and economic activities. Chapter 7 (Freedom to Interact) focuses on international and domestic forces that limit personal choice and the freedom of individuals to take an active part in the affairs of their communities. Chapter 8 (Capability to Interact) examines influences that curtail the capability of individuals to interact, principally malnutrition, disease and illiteracy. Chapter 9 (Conflict and Incapability) continues the theme started in Chapter 8 by analysing the high cost exacted by potential and actual war in all its formats in preventing interactions within the communities affected. Chapter 10 (Agenda for a New Paradigm) is the business end of the book. It focuses attention on what nations could most usefully do to optimise their own chances of success in an uncertain and highly competitive world. It underlines the point that success or failure is largely determined by what is, and is not, done locally. The chapter addresses the sensitive subject of how fast and how far the development process could be driven, when that activity is viewed in its true colours as a Complex Adaptive System. In addition, the chapter defines what more prosperous nations and global agencies should, and should not, do to help, and not hinder, other nations in their efforts to make effective and sustainable progress. Chapter 10 has a tough but positive message: nations could make substantial progress by harnessing their local energies and resources, but local makers and shakers have to bite the bullet and accept that human development comes first and foremost. |