The Curate’s Egg

I decided to publish this website for a number of reasons, explained elsewhere. However, at the top of my list was my desire to describe and assess events and actions as they are appear to me unaffected by ‘pear reviews’, publishers requirements, and other extraneous inhibitions. If my offerings appear a little trenchant then so be it. Needless to say I always try to be objective.

A number of issues have influenced my thinking, but the emerging ‘science’ of complexity has occupied a large portion of my focus in recent years. Complexity, like the curate’s egg, is good in parts. It is a new field that is full of promise as well as pitfalls. I have read many excellent publications on the subject. But sadly I have also read a lot of trash.

At worst complexity could be the latest fad. At best it could be the basis for a new approach in the way social, political, and economic events are researched and managed. For my part, I strongly believe that complex systems offer a promising avenue to explore. Certainly the results that have emerged so far from the natural and life sciences give grounds for optimism. But I also accept that too many people have jumped on the bandwagon in recent years; some more convincing than others. For this reason I thought that a few words about myself might be helpful.

Eclectic Past

Origins

I was born in Baghdad. At eighteen I came to Britain to attend university, returned to the Middle East to work for several years, and then came back to settle in Britain. My contacts with the Middle East were never severed, however, and in practice I consider both the Middle East and Britain as ‘home’. It is necessary to underline this point as it has enabled me, I believe, to take the baggage that comes with both backgrounds with a pinch of salt. On the other hand, each background offered benefits that helped me to acquire a wider viewpoint on events and personalities.

Qualifications

My eclectic past extends to my academic and professional qualifications and experience. I am a chartered civil engineer, a transportation planner, a chartered marketing specialist and, later in life, I was awarded a doctorate in development studies.

A False Beginning

After obtaining my first postgraduate degree from the University of Liverpool, I worked for three years in the Middle East as a development engineer, university lecturer, and consultant.

I returned to England in 1967 and started a period in planning and development, exclusively in local government. Use of computerised transportation models was in vogue at the time. Planners dreamt up ideas for the future and the modellers came back with a precise picture of what would happen twenty-five years later if the wish list were turned into action. It was unheard of, and practically impossible, to challenge the computer printouts; they were taken as gospel. I encountered the same faith in the power of ‘science’ as I steadily mounted the ladder of seniority. The aura of order, predictability, and control over long-term events was intoxicating. Development was seen as a finite and tidy process that obeyed known universal laws. Some countries are already ‘developed’, and others are still ‘developing’. The traditional concept of development is as simple, and laughable, as that!

A Change of Course

Needless to say, events hardly ever kept faith with forecasts. This little difficulty does not trouble the ‘experts’ normally. They move on after a few years and start the same process all over again someplace else. However, I remained in the same area and soon concluded that there was something seriously amiss in the way planning and development were pursued. When the opportunity arose in 1977 to work in the real world of passenger transport I jumped at the chance.

I occupied the position of Director of Service Planning and Co-ordination at the Merseyside Passenger Transport Executive until 1986. That organisation controlled directly and indirectly the entire passenger transport system in Liverpool and its sub-region; including buses, trains, and ferries.

The nature of the work in passenger transport was in sharp contrast to that involved in my previous employment. Planning changed from being a theoretical exercise to a practical activity that had immediate and measurable consequences. Changes to services and fare levels had to be agreed with the operators, negotiated with trade unions, debated in committees and public meetings and then implemented and then assessed. I was supposedly still involved in planning but everything else was different. The inadequacy of the methods and assumptions I took for granted in the past was exposed. Certainty had to be jettisoned in favour of probability and risk assessment. Rigid large-scale planning was out and experimentation and evolutionary change were in. Continuous monitoring coupled with flexibility and fine-tuning were the only sensible styles of management under these conditions.

My work changed and my methods and assumptions changed with it, but I was not yet aware of why things were radically different. Because revenues and passenger numbers were easily measurable, the consequences of planning were readily obvious. To survive in the new environment I had to adopt a new stance and fast. Although I felt a sense of unease previously, I doubt if I would have altered course without these powerful incentives. Appreciation that the systems we were dealing with were nonlinear came about years later.

Another Step on the Way

In 1986 I took another step away from order and predictability when I became the chief executive for the newly created Merseyside Tourism Board. MTB was set up ostensibly to promote Liverpool and its sub-region as a visitor destination, but the ultimate aim was to attract economic investment to the area. Social, political and economic issues came to the fore and, inevitably, assumptions about certainty and predictability had to be revised downwards yet again. Giving up was not an option. The task had to be managed but the way forward clearly demanded a high degree of variety and flexibility backed by good monitoring systems and a willingness to change course and to try something new. Above all else, it was obvious that management by dictates from the centre would be counterproductive. Best results were achieved when hundreds of local players; hoteliers, shop owners, companies, travel agents, etc. were allowed to innovate and interact within a clear overall policy and funding framework that commanded general acceptance.

The Final Shift in Perspective

The authorities on Merseyside made a number of positive changes in 1992 to the way the area was to be promoted. MTB as an ad-hoc private-public partnership lost much of its purpose as a result. I decided to move on with two aims in mind: to concentrate on human and economic development and to take stock of the experiences I have accumulated up to that point to gain a better understanding of the factors that shape social, political and economic events.

I embarked on research into systems theories taking development as my main topic for analysis. In time the research came to absorb most of my time but the rewards were more than adequate. I discovered the rich field of complex systems and my work on development was recognised by the University of Liverpool when I was awarded a PhD in 1999. I was also invited to be a Research Fellow at the School of Politics, University of Liverpool.

The insights that I gained into the behaviour of complex systems have helped me to better understand processes and activities in other fields in addition to international development. That certainly was the case in relation to my work on the Board of the Liverpool Women’s Hospital where I served as a non-executive from 1994 to the end of 2001. I then served as a non-executive director on the Board of the South Liverpool PCT (Primary Care Trust). The PCT was created as part of the radical restructuring of the National Health Service in Britain. The focus of PCTs is on local action and leadership by frontline staff. After amalgamation of three PCTs into one PCT for the whole of Liverpool I was asked to join the board again as a non executive director. I remained in that post until November 2013 when I left following yet another shakeup of the English National Health Service.

Current Activity

National and international development, public policy, and the international political economy remain my main occupations. I have maintained my link with the University of Liverpool where I serve as a Research Fellow in the Department of Politics. This link is invaluable as a means to keeping my knowledge fresh and up to date. The challenge of keeping up with other academics, and certainly students, is most stimulating. As described below I regularly attend, and speak at, international conferences.

I wrote a book on Complex Systems Theory and Development Practice that was published by Zed Books in September 2002. I also collaborated with Professor Robert Geyer, Lancaster University, on a book on Complexity and Public Policy that was published by Routledge in 2010.

Academic Qualifications

Qualification	Department	Establishment
Bachelor of Engineering (Honours)	Civil Engineering	University of Liverpool
Master of Engineering	Transportation	University of Liverpool
Doctor of Philosophy	Economic and Human Development	University of Liverpool

Appointments

Date	Appointment	Location
Consultant	November 1963 – February 1964	G. Shankland Associates, Architects and Planners, London
Engineer	March 1964 – August 1965	Municipality of Baghdad, Iraq
Lecturer	September 1965 – February 1967	Department of Architecture and Town Planning, Baghdad University, Iraq
Consultant	September 1965 – February 1967	Yawer and Associates, Architects and Engineers, Iraq
Group Leader	February 1967 – March1972	City Planning Department, Liverpool City Council, UK
Head of Transportation Section	March 1972—January 1974	City Planning Department, City Council, Liverpool, UK
Director, Joint Transportation Unit (JTU)	February 1974 – February 1977	Merseyside County Council, Liverpool, UK
Director of Service Planning and Co-ordination	March 1977 – September 1986	Merseyside Passenger Transport Executive (MPTE), UK
Chief Executive and member of the Board	October 1986 – November 1992	Merseyside Tourism Board (MTB), Liverpool, UK.
Managing Director	December 1992 – January 2001	EPHOR Consultants Ltd, Liverpool, UK
Non-Executive Director	October 1994 – December 2001	Liverpool Women’s Hospital NHS Trust, Liverpool, UK. Also Chairman of Audit Committee
Non-Executive Director	February 2002 – September 2006	South Liverpool Primary Care Trust (NHS), UK. Deputy Chairman, Chairman of Audit Committee and Chairman of Joint Risk Management Committee
Non-Executive Director	October 2006 – November 2013	Liverpool Primary Care Trust (NHS), UK. Chairman of Integrated Governance Committee
Incidental lectures on health management Centre for Public Health	2002 – 2005	Liverpool John Moore’s University
Research Fellow, Lectures on human and economic development and International Political Economy to third year and postgraduate students	November 2000 – 2014	Department of Politics, University of Liverpool

Academic and Professional Activities

Date	Type	Title	Location or Publisher
November 1963	MSc Thesis	Studies of Traffic Stream Characteristics	University of Liverpool
March 1974	Lecture	Operational Planning in Developing Countries	Faculty of Engineering and Architecture; American University of Beirut, Lebanon
April 1975	Paper to International Conference	Public Transport and People, New approaches to the Planning Process	Paris
July 1975	Paper to PTRC annual conference	The Implementation of Transport Policies and Programmes	University of Warwick, UK
February 1976	Lecture	Transport Planning and Programming in Merseyside	Bradford University, UK
March 1976	Paper to Meeting of Scottish Regional Authorities	Operational Planning and Resource Allocation	Edinburgh, UK
March 1977	Paper to Association of Metropolitan Authorities Transportation Conference	Resource Planning in Merseyside	Liverpool, UK
May 1977	Paper to Institution of Civil Engineers Conference	Value for Money in the Allocation of Resources	Gwent, UK
November 1977	Lecture to Public Transport Society	Future of Transport Planning	University of Liverpool, UK
November 1977	Paper to Chartered Institute of Transport	Land Use Planning in the Context of Public Transport Planning	Preston, UK
January 1979	Paper to Chartered Institute of Transport	Policies Into Practice	Birmingham, UK
February 1979	Lecture to overseas students at the Birmingham Institute of Local Government Studies	Rationalisation, Management and Control of Public Transport Services	University of Liverpool, UK
April 1979	Paper to Chartered Institute of Transport	Merseyrail: Planning and Implementation	Leeds, UK
June 1979	Paper to Conference Europanne Des Ministres Des Transports Round Table No 47	Scope for Railway Development in Urban Areas: Merseyside a Case Study	Hamburg, Germany
February 1981	Review Symposium	Inner City in Context	University of Liverpool, UK
March 1981	Paper to Conference on Public Transport	Marketing Public Transport	Newcastle University, UK
September 1981	Lecture to British Transport Staff College	Planning a New Public Transport Network	Woking, UK
October 1981	Visit to USA to research transport for disabled persons	Award from Leverhulme Foundation	Various locations in the USA
September 1982	Paper to Association of Metropolitan Authorities Transportation Conference	Future of Local Rail Systems	Manchester, UK
November 1982	Paper to Transport and Road Research Laboratory	Merseyrail Impact Study	Glasgow, UK
February 1984	Paper to Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy	Cost Benefit Analysis and its Applications	London, UK
March 1984	Lecture at School of Advanced Urban Studies	Public Transport in Metropolitan Areas	Bristol University, UK
April 1984	Paper to National Conference of Community Transport Operators	Integration and Coordination of Services for Disabled Persons	Newcastle, UK
April 1985	Paper to Bus and Coach Council Conference	The 1985 Transport Bill and Its Implications for Metropolitan Areas	Manchester, UK
September 1987	Lecture at Civic Design Department	Tourism: Flagship for Merseyside	University of Liverpool, UK
March 1989	Paper to Scottish Association of Tourist Officers	Merseyside Tourism Board: a New Breed of Tourism Organisation	Dunblane, UK
June 1989	Paper to 7th European Leisure and Recreation Association Congress	The Role of Leisure and Tourism in the Process of Revitalisation	Rotterdam, Holland
June 1989	Paper to Planning Transport Research Company (PTRC) Conference	Enterprise in the North West: Marketing an Urban Destination	Manchester, UK
April 1991	Paper toChartered Institute of Transport	Tourism and Transport: Partners in Success	Liverpool, UK
May 1992	Talk to The Tourism Society (Consultants Group)	Tourism and Economic Development	Liverpool, UK
January 1993	Talk to the English Speaking Union	Economic Development and the Future of Jobs	Liverpool, UK
September 1993	Talk to University of the Third Age	Economic Development in the World Today	Wirral, UK
May 1993-May 1994	Monthly column on political economic topics	Liverpool Daily Post	Liverpool, UK
Late-1995	Part time research on complex systems	School of Politics and Communications	University of Liverpool, UK
June 1999	PhD Thesis completed and accepted	Complexity in the Development Process	University of Liverpool, UK
April 2000	Joint paper with Dr Geyer to Political Science Association Conference	Complexity Theory and the Fundamental Challenges to Democracy in the 21st Century	London School of Economics, UK
March 2001	Paper in Progress in Development Studies volume 1, no.3,2001,	Complexity: An Appropriate Framework for Development?	UK
March 2002	Paper in Progress in Development Studies volume 2, no.2, 2002	Implications of Adopting a Complexity Framework for Development	UK
August 2002	Book	Complex Systems Theory and Development Practice	Zed Books, UK
2003 to 2005	Lectures at Centre for Public Health,	Complex Systems Theory and Health	Liverpool John Moores University, Uk
April 2003	Paper to World Conference on Dialogue Among Civilisations,	Development as a Complex Adaptive System	UNESCO, Warsaw, Poland
August 2003	Presentation to Feasta and Worldwide Democracy Network	Exploring a whole systems approach to sustainability	Ireland
October 2004	Paper to Salford PTC and NHS University	What Can Complexity Thinking Tell Us About The NHS?	Manchester, UK
September 2005	Paper to Complexity and Science International Conference	Complexity and Politics	University of Liverpool, UK
September2005	Paper to Complexity and Science International Conference	NHS: Anarchy or Perfection?	University of Liverpool, UK
June 2006	Paper to 3rd International Conference on Complexity and Health Innovation and Research	English National Health Service	Bilbao, Spain
February 2007	Presentation at Seminar	Mission in Their Madness	Lancaster University, UK
July 2008	Paper to 3rd Conference of International Association of Contemporary Iraqi Studies	A Complex Systems View of America’s Misadventure in Iraq	SAOS, London, UK
May 2009	Paper to Conference on Globalisation and Welfare Sustainable Solutions	Nations as Networks of Interlinked Processes	Templeton Green College, Oxford, UK
June 2009	Presentation to Cost of War Conference	The War on Iraq	Liverpool Hope University, UK
September 2009	Paper to ESF workshop on Complexity and NHS Reorganisation	Can Complexity Improve European Health Policy?	Lancaster University, UK
November 2009	Presentation to workshop on complexity	Complex Systems	Lancaster University, UK
December 2009	Two presentations to 3 day Conference on Sustainable Development Indicators	Nation as Complex Adaptive Systems	Bibliotheca Alexandrina, Egypt
June 2010	Presentation to Workshop on Complexity and Health	Complexity and the NHS	LSE, London, UK
Sept 2012                     November 2012	Complexity and Public    Policy. (Co-authored)                                                         Paper to AMEPPA 1st Conference on Public Policy in ME	An Accord for MENA	Ilfrane, Morocco
January 2013	Published paper in The Innovation Journal 18(1), 2013, qrticle5	Middle East Countries in suspended animation	International Journal
May 2013	New Middle East Conference	MENA’s Future: Revolution or Evolution?	University of Liverpool, UK
November 2013	Paper to AMEPPA 2nd Conference on Public Policy	Nations as CAS: Mix of Order and Chaos	Atilim University, Ankara, Turkey

January 2015      Public Administration        Chapter: “Iraq’s               Publishers: Springer                
                           and Policy in the Middle    Revolutionary Cul-de-sacs 
                           East.                                 sacs”

Sept. 2016         Eradicating Terrorism         Chapter: ” Terrorism         Publisher: Springer 
                          from the Middle East         Through the Looking
                                                                   Glass” 

Currently:           Researching and writing book on “Leaders at Large” as a working title.